Future of Cannon Falls & County
Looks Solid But Not Explosive
State Representative, Sandy Wollschlager, Minnesota state demographer, Tom Gillaspy and Minnesota state economist, Tom Stinson take a look at the Cannon Falls Beacon newspaper.
The “Dynamic Duo” of Minnesota economics, Tom Stinson , state economist and Tom Gillaspy, state demographer, explained current government policies and trends at a public meeting presented by the Cannon Falls Unit of the Northfield League of Women Voters at the Cannon Falls Government Center last Saturday. State representative, Sandy Wollschlager moderated. Approximately 40 people braved the blustery snowy weather to hear the men keep the topic moving by alternately speaking and applying a wry sense of humor in covering topics from present and past prosperity in Minnesota to dominant trends in the future.
These included the present housing downturn and job market but with an upswing in economic growth possibly beginning as soon as mid summer..
Gillaspy stated that Minnesota is a “pretty remarkable place!” For example: it’s the “best place in the nation to raise children”. Also, “Minnesota leads the nation in people covered by health insurance.” It has a very good work force that is highly trained but also has some people and areas that have poverty rates.
Overall, the news is good, agreed Stinson, except for southwestern part of the state. He explained that Minnesota’s previous resource-based economy has become diversified and the disposable income after taxes is still good. Minnesota’s personal income individually was ranked 25th in 1960 but moved up to 14th in 2006.
Minnesota households will earn more by 2016. Real per capita disposable income is projected to grow to $35,199 or a $7500 increase. Household wealth per capita is forecast to grow over 60 percent by 2014. This includes adjustments for inflation and medical cost increases.
“Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average… although it is expected to remain slow until mid summer. But our population growth rate leads the frost belt.” It actually is twice that of South Dakota.
Minnesota’s success today, they explain, is due to decisions made in both the private and public sector over 50 years ago. This included the challenges of the potential “baby boom” and wise investments. “Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success.”
The future will be shaped by three forces: demography, globalization and technology. The “prairie counties” will have ¼ to 1/3 percent of their population over 65 years of age. Scott and Carver counties are among the fastest growing areas in the nation. Goodhue County, Gillaspy explained, is not as explosive but projected growth is solid.
Societies today are aging, he continued, meaning the workforce. Canada and Mexico’s are also aging. Europe’s is already older. This means there is an increase in people in their 50’s and 60’s and fewer in their 40’s. The “Boom Generation” after WWII did not replace themselves.
The average American retires at ages 62-63 and therefore uses Social Security. There will be a sharp increase in retirements beginning in 2008. There will be 30 percent more turning 62 then and this will continue for two decades.
It is a unique period in the history of our nation, he continued. It has been the 18-24 years olds who were starting their families, careers, etc. that provided the source for those who have retired. In the past, new workers came from neighboring states but that’s pretty well tapped out. Where will future talent come from?
Stinson questioned: “How do we make the fullest use of the talents of everybody because there are fewer workers? How do we compete for more workers? How do we maintain the incumbent work force?”
“Eighty percent of the workers in the future are working now.” Because of the smaller supply of workers, it may mean that people will continue to work as they grow older.
Stinson pointed out: We can’t afford to lose the background and knowledge these older workers might have. Our competitive advantage is that we have workers who are well-trained with good skills.
Gillaspy explained that Minnesota has the highest proportion of women in the workforce in the nation. Also, older workers may need to work longer because they haven’t saved enough. Since the source of younger workers from the prairies is no longer available, migration might be an answer. It would come from Asian countries, Africa, or South America.
Tax increases are not helpful. Cutting taxes might make personal income of the baby boomers getting ready to retire more available.
Retirees are usually more fiscally conservative and against higher taxes. Health care spending will increase and government priorities will be on issues of aging and health.
In the housing market, some areas including Goodhue county, will not see the growth as has happened in the past. It may take 5-7-10 years to come back.
The future housing market may include “huge increases in empty nesters and those 55 and older living alone.” Previously, potential residents who were starting families used to ask about the school situation in a community. Now they are more likely to ask about health care facilities or availability of activities that attract older people like colleges, etc.
Stinson explained that the key for the future is a sense of community and health care.
Tom Carnel, Cannon Falls listened intently to State Demographer, Tom Gillaspy during a break in the discussion.
Joy Jacques, Cannon Falls paid attention to the point made by State Economist, Tom Stinson.
Following the previous discussion came a review of the future library by Naomi Estes-Tullo, library foundation, Janice Kunkel, library director , and Allene Moesler, League of Women Voters.
Economic realities and trends were considered in the discussion following the Stinson-Gillaspy presentation by Naomi Estes-Tullo, president of the Cannon Falls Library Board, as to the building of a new library. She explained that various sites have been considered including the current site, the Mill Street Lofts project, and the government center. The latter site was free and therefore economically motivating. A structural investigation of the present library building is being initiated. Estes-Tullo added that they will not be able to project costs until they find a site.
Janice Kunkel, director of the Cannon Falls library, explained the basis of the space-needs model.
Mayor Glenn Weibel brought up the option of expanding the present library by 20 feet and adding a second floor. The remodeling and décor could be kept similar to the décor of the old downtown area.
An informational sheet stated that the current facility does not meet code. It outgrew its current space in 1984. Over $19,000 has already been spent over the past ten years on studies and consulting along with much time by staff and volunteers.
Back in 2005 the city council committed the $1 million Invenergy development fee to a capital expenditure that would be of benefit to the community as a whole and ranked a new library first. In 2007 the city council approved a plan to fund library construction without the need to raise taxes.
Estes-Tullo concluded, libraries are centers for “life-long learning”.
